Reading the Three Paths Against Each Other
Line the three up and the incentive structure becomes obvious. College now pays the most money to an 18-year-old, in dollars available immediately, of any of the three routes, which explains why several prospects who once would have signed with European clubs have reversed course toward American campuses in recent recruiting cycles. EuroLeague still offers the highest basketball ceiling for a teenager willing to accept lower pay in exchange for professional-level competition, the model that shaped Doncic and, earlier in his career, Wembanyama. The G League has been squeezed into a much narrower role, useful mainly for players already on an NBA roster's periphery rather than as a stand-alone development track for a top recruit.
