Where Brentford's model started
Matthew Benham, Brentford's owner, studied physics at Oxford before moving into finance in the City of London. He later founded Smartodds, a statistical research firm serving professional gamblers, after backing a scoring-probability model built by researchers Stuart Coles and Mark Dixon at Lancaster University that outperformed bookmakers' own odds. Smartodds now compiles data on more than 85,000 players worldwide, a database originally built for betting clients that Brentford's football staff use to price transfer targets the way Benham once priced match odds.
Ahead of the 2015-16 season, Brentford committed to identifying undervalued players with that data, developing them, and selling on for profit rather than trying to outbid richer clubs for the finished article.
